In 1960 Norbert Wiener published a prescient essay in which he worried about a world in which machines learn and develop unforeseen strategies. In August 2022, AI Impacts published a survey that asked more than 700 machine-learning researchers about their predictions for both progress in AI and the risks the technology might pose. The survey found that the typical respondent reckoned there was a 5% probability of advanced AI causing an “extremely bad” outcome, such as human extinction. There is a lot of concern focused on “large language models” such as ChatGPT, which can produce human-quality writing and chat knowledgeably about all kinds of topics. The most immediate risk is of such software making it easier to do lots of things and thus allowing more people to do them.
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